US Nationals

With US Nationals coming up, I wanted to share my thoughts on not only what I think will happen, but also what I want to happen.

First, the Men.

I would like the podium to consist of Jeremy Abbott, Adam Rippon, and Armin Mahbanoozadeh, but Brandon Mroz has had a strong season so I think it will be tough for Armin to get on the podium.  I really like Jeremy's LP this season, and hope he can perform it almost to its potential (save the best for worlds) at Nationals.  He is the favorite, but if he messes up, others can and will take advantage.  Adam had a VERY strong season opener at the Japan Open, but his triple axel proved troublesome during the Grand Prix series.  Hopefully everything is under control and he will be able to nail his axels in competition to get his confidence back on them.  I really enjoy both of Armin's programs this season, not just for the jumps, spins, choreo, etc., but also because you can tell he really enjoys being out there.  His programs are interesting and unique, and he is one of a very small group of men who can actually do a good camel position!

Now, the Ladies.  There are only two spots for worlds this year, and the contenders all better bring their A-game, because no one can really afford to make a mistake.

I would like to see Mirai Nagasu, Ashley Wagner, and Alissa Czisny on the podium, but I honestly don't know who the best team will be to get the three spots back at worlds.  It would seem like Mirai and Alissa have the most potential to get the spots back, but I fear that Alissa has already peaked and will feel the pressure of living up to expectations after winning the GPF.  Her skating is beautiful and I really love both of her programs this year, but I just have a feeling that she has already skated her best programs of the season.  Mirai has the potential to place highly at worlds with the technical content she is attempting, but that is only if she rotates her jumps.  Even with the new < rules, you still lose base value and GOE marks, essentially making under rotated triples equal to the value of well executed doubles (instead of less like last year).  She also needs to change her spiral in the LP to an arabesque to maximize potential GOE.

Many people have been counting Ashley out this year, but I actually think that may be a good thing for her.  The two times Ashley has been considered a "frontrunner" at nationals, she has messed up the short program and had to come back fighting in the long.  However, back in 2008 when the attention was on Caroline and Kimmie, she delivered two of the best performances of the night, placing second in both segments of the competition.  On the other hand, everyone is counting on Rachael Flatt to make the podium because of her consistency, but this season has shown us that she is not as consistent as she used to be.  With the foot injury and change in technique, I don't know if Rachael is back into top form, and wouldn't be surprised if she finished off the podium at Nationals.  Plus, the performances she gave at the GPF are in the back of her mind, and doubts can creep back in under pressure.  Overall, the ladies field is fairly wide open, but I think that Mirai will take back her National title.